Wanda Movies (002739): waiting for the film market to pick up and look forward to the performance of film and television business

Wanda Movies (002739): waiting for the film market to pick up and look forward to the performance of film and television business

2019H1 returns to mother’s net profit 5.

24 ppm, in line with market expectations, maintaining the overweight rating company released its 2019 Interim Report on August 20, with 19H1 revenue of 75.

6.4 billion, a decrease of 11.

18%; net profit attributable to mother 5.

2.4 billion, down 61.

88%; deduct non-attributed net profit 5.

4 billion, with a decrease of 40.


The performance is in the middle of the performance forecast, which is in line with market expectations.

In May 2019, the company completed the acquisition of Wanda Film.

We lower our 2019-2021 profit forecast to 13.



33 trillion, EPS is 0.



83 yuan, with reference to the company’s 19-year PE estimation interval of 17X-23X. Considering the company’s entire industrial chain layout and industry leader layout, a certain valuation premium is given. We believe that it is reasonable to give a 19-year PE valuation of 25X-26X, corresponding to the adjustment target.The price is 15.

67 yuan-16.

3 yuan to maintain the overweight level.

  The performance was mainly due to the decline in the projection business, and the impact of Wanda’s film-controlled film release replacement in 19H1 was affected by both the film projection business and Wanda’s film and television business.

For movie projection business, the company achieved box office 49 in 19H1.

7 trillion, same minus 0.

97%; add 208 screens, increase by 4.


The box office declined while the screen continued to grow, resulting in a single screen length from 1.03 million in the same period of the previous year to 910,000 yuan, and the gross profit of the show fell by 8pct.

In addition, the number of moviegoers in the first half of the year was 1.

0.8 billion, with a decrease of 9.

36%, the sales revenue and advertising revenue based on film visits also decreased; in terms of film and television business, the 18H1 Wanda film-controlled film “Chinatown Detective 2” achieved a high box office, while the 19H1 main-control film screening decreased, resulting in film productionIncome fell by 70.

14%; other game businesses are affected by version number application control, and some new game alternatives are on-line as scheduled, with revenue ranking of about 40.


  Film projection business outlook: Due to the short-term shortage of high-quality content, the short-term downturn is optimistic. According to the semi-annual report, it is revealed that the 19H1 national film market box office was 311.

7 trillion, the same minus 2.

7%; number of moviegoers 8.

100 million, with a decrease of 10.

3%; We believe that the downturn in the movie market is mainly due to the rapid improvement of audience appreciation standards and the insufficient supply of high-quality movies. However, from the long-term perspective, the quality of content will become a trend. Through the sound and self-improvement of the movie industry chain, the quality ofSupply will increase, and we remain bullish on the Chinese film market.

At the same time, the average value of some operating indicators of Wanda Cinema Line is leading, showing its good operating experience.

We are still optimistic about the long-term performance of the company’s projection and non-ticket business.

  Film and television business outlook: Many high-quality films and theme series are expected to bring incremental performance in the second half of the year. The company will actively deploy high-quality films, expand core copyright operations, and invest in or participate in the production of “Silent Witness”.Peak Glory of Full-time Masters “,” Manslaughter “,” Heroes of Fire “,” Captain China “and other films are about to be released in the second half of 19; in TV series, as the 深圳桑拿网 company’s investment in” airborne blade “,” turbulent “,” bigTimes “,” Best Times “,” Hidden and Great “and many other theme-distorting episodes are expected to be broadcast in the second half of the year, which will increase the income of film and television business.  We do n’t change the position of the leader for the time being. We are optimistic about the company ‘s future development and maintain an overweight rating. We believe that the negative growth of the national box office in the first half of the year was mainly due to insufficient supply of high-quality films.Downgrade, currently lowering 2019-2021 profit forecast to 13.



3.3 billion (before adjustment: 14.



480,000 yuan), EPS for 2019-2021 is 0.



83 yuan.

With reference to the 2019 PE estimation range of comparable companies of 17X-23X, given the company’s overall industrial chain layout and industry leader layout, given a certain premium, we believe that the 2019 PE estimation of 25X-26X is reasonable, and the corresponding adjusted target price is 15

67 yuan-16.

3 yuan to maintain the overweight level.

  Risk reminder: The box office growth of the country’s movies is less than expected, and the effect of Wanda’s film and television products is less than expected.

Grammy (002340) 2019 Semi-annual Report Review: Precursor volume increased, optimistic about warming cobalt prices and improving profitability

Grammy (002340) 2019 Semi-annual Report Review: Precursor volume increased, optimistic about warming cobalt prices and improving profitability

Net profit growth was in line with expectations, expenses were properly controlled, and the asset-liability ratio dropped. The company achieved revenue 62 in the first half of 2019.

04 ‰, at least -11.

70%; realized attributable net profit4.

1.4 billion, +0 a year.

58%, in line with democratic expectations; deducting non-net profit3.

860,000 yuan, at least -7.


Selling expense ratio rose by 0.

23pct to 0.

天津夜网77%, the management expense ratio decreased by 3.

36ptc to 3.

27%, financial pressure is still irresistible, and the financial expense ratio rose by zero.

48pct to 4.

79%, the overall expense ratio fell by 2.

66pct to 8.


The balance of accounts receivable at the end of the period21.

58 trillion, ten years +0.

97%, accounts receivable increased by 3 from the beginning of the period.

580,000 yuan, an increase of 19.

88%, mainly due to the increase in accounts receivable in the battery materials sector in the current period.

Cash in hand 31.

27 trillion, asset-liability ratio fell 5.

35pct to 59.


Operating cash flow from last year.

2.2 billion reduced to 1.

1.7 billion, of which the operating cash flow in the first quarter was -2.

8.5 billion.

The volume of new energy materials has greatly increased. We are optimistic about the profitability brought about by the rebound in cobalt prices. The volume of the new energy materials business in the first half of the company increased by 170% to 3.

3 Growth rate, market share of more than 20%, realized revenue of 41.

27 trillion, +2 for ten years.


In the case of falling cobalt prices, the gross profit margin rose slightly to zero.

02pct to 22.

97%, optimistic that the increase in the proportion of high nickel products will increase the gross profit margin.

The company’s precursors have entered the world’s mainstream supply chain and there is too much downstream demand. A 30-second ternary precursor long order has been signed in the next 3 years.

Power battery recycling business will also gradually land.The cobalt-nickel-tungsten segment achieved revenue 9.

0.8 billion, -40 a year.

Cobalt carbonate sales reached nearly 2,000 tons, a year-on-year growth of 157%, leading the market share globally; gross profit margin fell 7.

49pct to 16.

25%, mainly due to the significant decline in the price of cobalt metal.

We are optimistic that the cobalt price of Glencore Mutanda mine will rise after the suspension of production, and gradually increase the gross profit margin.

Revenue from the renewable resources sector7.

89 trillion, +5 for ten years.

70%; nearly 2.5 million sets of dismantling, a year + 120%; gross profit margin increased by 2.

55pct to 5.


The government electricity waste dismantling subsidy fund can accelerate the development, and the supplementary collection standards and supplementary standards for the nine types of waste electrical and electronic product processing funds are also expected to be introduced annually, and the industry ecology is conducive to improvement.

In addition, the auto dismantling business is expected to gradually release its potential under the policy stimulus.

Investment suggestion: Maintain “Buy” rating.

The company’s ternary battery cathode material precursor production capacity is rapidly released, and the rapid volume growth will drive rapid growth in the next two years.

The power battery recycling market has gradually opened up, and the company has seized this important resource channel in advance.

Cobalt price bottomed out and recovered the company’s profitability.

The market for renewable resources is gradually picking up.

We maintain that the company’s 2019-2021 results are expected to be 8.



10,000 yuan, corresponding to PE22 / 15 / 12X.

Risk warning: Cobalt prices continue to fall, new energy vehicle growth is accelerating, and supplements are less than expected

Haige Communications (002465): Q3 performance basically meets expected Nuggets multiple industry potential

Haige Communications (002465): Q3 performance basically meets expected Nuggets multiple industry potential

On October 29, the company released the report for the third quarter of 2019, and the company achieved revenue of 8 in Q3.

7 billion (+7 year-on-year.

56%), achieving net profit attributable to mother of 8820.

250,000 yuan (+20 compared with the same 四川耍耍网 period last year).

07%); in the first three quarters, the company achieved total revenue of 28.

4.5 billion (+7 year-on-year.

96%), achieving net profit attributable to mothers3.

110 thousand yuan (+19 compared with the same period last year).


The company expects that the profit attributable to the mother in 2019 will increase by 15% to 35% per year.

The company’s Q3 performance was basically in line with expectations, and the expected performance is expected to grow steadily.

With the waning influence of the military reform and the gradual normalization of military procurement, the company’s Q3 revenue and performance indicators have doubled in the same period last year, and the overall operation remains stable.

At the same time, through the resumption of military business, the proportion of military orders increased, resulting in a gradual increase in gross profit margin of Q35.

07 points.

In addition, due to the relatively large proportion of software informatization products, Q3 gross profit margin decreased by 2 from the previous quarter.

68 points.

At the same time, the company expects that net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 15% -35% in 2019, corresponding to net profit attributable to mothers4.


8 ppm with a median of 5.

3.8 billion.

We believe that the company will likely continue its steady growth trend in the middle of this year.

The management efficiency of the company has been steadily improved, and research and development and promotion are still abundant.

The company’s Q3 budget for R & D1.

61 billion US dollars, an increase of 989 million US dollars compared with the same period last year. Full research and development investment will help the company break through its advantages in future competition, and it is expected to capture more shares in the construction of national defense information technology.

The company’s Q3 overall expense ratio was properly controlled, and the increase in sales expense ratio increased by 0.

1pct, every time the overhead rate drops.

7pct, reducing the proportion of R & D expenses by 1.

9pct, financial expense ratio increased by 0.

1pct, the overall cost rate dropped by 3.

3 points, so the company’s overall profitability has been enhanced, corresponding to an increase in Q3 net profit margin by 1.

53 points.

In addition, the company’s operating efficiency has also improved. The company’s inventory and accounts receivable turnover days in the first three quarters were 252.

67, 252.

12. The inventory turnover days ratio was 317 over the same period last year.

The improvement of 65 is obvious, and the turnover days of accounts receivable are basically the same.

The focus of the segment is to effectively improve comprehensive competitiveness, and multi-business efforts to lay out key military and civilian areas in the future.

As a veteran military enterprise, the company has more military communications, navigation and satellite communications technology accumulation and brand effects formed by years of cooperation with customers. At the same time, through acquisitions and acquisitions to enter key areas such as aerospace and civil communications, it can effectivelyGive play to technical and market synergies.

With the start of 5G construction, the company’s software and informatization sectors have focused on development, and the subsidiary Haigeyi has achieved steady growth in revenue. Since 2019, it has announced new bids of about 15.10 ppm, effectively guarantee the company’s future long-term growth.

In addition, through the construction of Beidou III, the company took the lead in releasing the Beidou III baseband + RF full-chip solution, and this year announced the Beidou navigation and wireless communication related order contracts.

2.4 billion.

In the field of aerospace, the company’s subsidiary Chida Aircraft has continuously exceeded its performance commitments since the acquisition, and achieved a net profit of 2291 in the first half of this year.

770,000 yuan, laying the foundation for the company’s continued expansion of high-end manufacturing layout.

Based on the profit forecast and estimation, we believe that the company’s operating efficiency has been steadily improved, and the R & D expansion has been redundant. Considering 5G construction and the resumption of military procurement, the Beidou-3 satellite system is about to be completed and the continuous construction of satellite communications will bring future benefitsDevelopment potential, we adjusted the company’s 2017-2019 profit forecast according to the company’s three quarterly report, of which the revenue forecast is from 47.



92 million adjusted to 46.



69 trillion, with a budget gain of 0.



41 yuan adjusted to 0.



36 yuan, corresponding to the current price of 41 times, 32 times, 26 times.

With reference to a comparable company’s average PE of 38 times in 2020, considering that the company is a leader in military communications and comprehensively deploys high-end manufacturing and services in multiple sectors, giving the company a target PE of 2020 by 40 times, we maintain the company’s target price of 12 yuan and maintain a “buy”grade.

Risks remind the company that there is a risk of impairment of goodwill, there is uncertainty in military orders, Beidou navigation application progress may be less than expected

Kyushutsu (600998) Semi-annual Report Review: Performance Meets Expectations Steady Development of All Business Lines

Kyushutsu (600998) Semi-annual Report Review: Performance Meets Expectations Steady Development of All Business Lines

Investment highlights: The company announced its 2019 semi-annual report and realized revenue of 484.

300 million (+14.

09%), net profit 7.

4.3 billion (+38.

46%), deducting non-net profit 6.

1.7 billion (+25.


EPS is 0.

40 yuan.

Performance is in line with expectations.

Among them, the second quarter realized revenue of 237.

6.6 billion yuan (+17.

43%), net profit 4.

1.6 billion (+31.


Ping An’s View: Both gross profit margin and financial expense ratio increased slightly: the company’s gross profit margin was 8.

38% (+0.

28pp), the main reason for the increase was the higher proportion of medical devices and family planning supplies with higher gross profit margins; sales expenses accumulated3.

12% (-0.

03pp), the management expense ratio (including research and development expenses) is 2.

02% (-0.

15pp), financial expenses1.

25% (+0.

39pp), the increase in the financial expense ratio was mainly due to the increase in the company’s financing scale and the company’s capital cost was at a high level.

New and old customers make concerted efforts, and the medical institution business grows rapidly: the company’s medical institution business achieved revenue of 172.

2.5 billion (+27.

32%), of which the number of second-tier and above hospital customers reached 5,300, an increase of at least 830, adding more hospital customers and constituting account opening hospitals to obtain more agent varieties, two factors together promote the mid-to-high-end hospital market to achieve revenue109.

3 billion (+25.

75%); the coverage of primary medical institutions rose to 81,000, and it will increase by 5,900 in the future. Driven by the sinking of channels, the market for primary medical institutions 南京夜网 realized revenue 62.

9.5 billion (+30.


The wholesale business of retail pharmacies slowed down, and the wholesale business of downstream retail pharmacies achieved an income of 125.

3.4 billion (+14.

20%), referring to the growth rate of more than 30% of the business before 2018, the growth rate slowed down in the first half of this year.

Among them, the wholesale income of chain drug stores realized 93.

8.9 billion (+14.

57%), to achieve revenue from the wholesale of individual pharmacies.
5.4 billion (+13.

The transfer business income was 157.

4.8 billion (+4.

97%), the first reason to stop falling and pick up is that the effect of channel transfer caused by the two-vote system has ended.

The retail business has undergone structural adjustments, cleaning up franchise stores and 云尚丽体验网 optimizing the e-commerce model: the company’s retail business achieved revenue8.

9.6 billion (-10.

4%), of which the physical store revenue is 5.

7.9 billion (+14.

41%), good growth.

E-commerce business realized revenue 3.

1.8 billion (-35.

75%). The decline was mainly due to the transformation of platforms such as Good Pharmacist Jingdong and Tmall to provide value-added services to manufacturers, from the pursuit of scale-oriented to the focus on operating quality.

It is expected that growth will resume after subsequent adjustments.

Affected by the decoction market, the growth rate of industrial business growth: Industrial business realized revenue7.

2.6 billion (+1.

19%), the slowing growth rate is mainly due to the decline in the market price of Chinese medicine decoction pieces.

The company’s dimethyl bis-alkaline tablets have passed the consistency evaluation, the captopril tablets have completed the BE experiment, and the other four diversity are consistently evaluated.

These varieties are expected to contribute to the future growth of the industrial business.

Maintain the “Recommended” level: The company is the country’s largest private drug distributor, and has an irreplaceable industry position in the wholesale field of retail pharmacies. With the company’s vigorous development, the hospital business continues to grow at a high speed.More and more right to speak.

Maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is expected that the company’s EPS in 2019, 2020 and 2021 will be 0.

87 yuan, 1.

05 yuan, 1.

26 yuan, corresponding PE is 16/13/11 times, currently at historically low estimates, maintaining the “recommended” rating.

Risk reminders: 1. Policy risks: In recent years, there have been frequent policies in the pharmaceutical industry. Some policies may affect the company’s short-term performance.

2. Financial risks: Frequent policies in the pharmaceutical industry have led to a general extension of the industry repayment account period. If downstream repayment conditions change, it may cause problems with the company’s capital chain.

3. Drug quality risk: As a special commodity, drugs are more stringent in terms of production, transportation, storage, etc. Any conversion problems may affect the company’s operations.

Foton Motor (600166): Abandoning the burden and going light, focusing on the main business

Foton Motor (600166): Abandoning the burden and going light, focusing on the main business
Event: The company released the 2019 first quarter report.Realized operating income of 141.4.4 billion, an annual increase of 50.27%; net profit attributable to mother 0.80,000 yuan, an increase of 113 in ten years.28%. The sales volume is fully blooming, and the reform on the income side has achieved results.Foton Motor’s sales in the first quarter were 13.110,000, an increase 北京夜生活网 of 11 in ten years.8%.The financial business exceeded 8 billion, with an annual growth rate of 18%.Specifically, light truck sales were 8.20,000, an annual increase of 16%; sales of medium and heavy trucks 3.140,000, an increase of 9 in ten years.The sales volume of large and medium passenger vehicles was 2813, an increase of 177% year-on-year, and the market share was the second (2485 vehicle sales, an increase of 450%); the sales of new energy vehicles was 2,575, an increase of 353%.Benefiting from the significant improvement in sales volume, the company’s commercial vehicles have returned to the top position in sales volume. The reform effect of focusing on the main business has been shown. The growth rate of the main revenue side has increased by 50%, with an increase of nearly 4.7 billion. The increase mainly comes fromSignificant increase in bus sales.From the historical perspective, the second quarter is the peak season for commercial vehicle sales, supplementing the rush-installation effect brought by the implementation of National Sixth Phase A in some regions in July 2019. The main industry still has gradual growth momentum. The profit side recovered significantly, and the gross profit margin and period rate were optimized.The company turned its net profit back to profit in the first quarter, recording 0.800 million, an annual increase of 6.8 billion.The main reasons for the increase in performance were: 1. The increase in light truck sales and the optimization of the sales structure of construction machinery increased the gross profit, and the profit increased by 200 million; 2. The completion of delivery of Beijing bus orders affected the increase in profit 3.700 million; 3, the transfer of 67% stake in Bao Wo increased profit 4.700 million. From the perspective of gross profit margin, the gross profit margin in the first quarter was 13.5%, a significant increase of 5 from the previous quarter.7 pct, an increase of 0 every year.2 pct. The scale effect of commercial vehicles has increased the company’s gross profit to the normal level in the past. In the long term, the company is at the inflection point, which will reduce the company’s cost reduction and increase efficiency. There is still room for growth in the subsequent gross profit margin. The rate during the first quarter was 13.4% had previously fallen significantly 7.9 points.Specifically, the sales expense ratio decreased by 3.4pct, the management expense ratio decreased by 3 pct, and the R & D expense ratio decreased by 0.2 pct, the financial expense ratio decreased by 1.2 pct. The significant decrease in the company’s expense ratio was mainly due to the replacement of Bao Wo assets and the enhancement of the company’s management capabilities. The lowest valley of Baowo has passed, and the main performance has begun to be realized.Baowo deserves attention in two aspects. In the first quarter, 67% of Baowo’s distribution was transferred to obtain non-recurring benefits.9 billion.2. The investment income of joint ventures and joint ventures is -600 million. The operating conditions of Foton Daimler and Foton Cummins have improved. Negative investment income is due to the first quarter of Bao Wo.About 100 million investment income. It is said that Baowo ‘s current major shareholder, Shenzhou UCAR, transferred 67% of Changsheng Industrial’s time-share announcement. In January, Baowo’s revenue was 1.2 billion, net profit was -19 billion, and its net asset assessment was only 1.9 billion.When the target was transferred to Changsheng Industrial, the target net assets were 59.300 million. During this period, Baowo’s production and operation showed no obvious abnormalities.In our opinion, the relatively cautious assessment of Baowo ‘s assets and accruals by Baosteel this time is the main reason for the improvement of Baowo ‘s first quarter performance. It is expected that Baowo will enter the normal performance platform in the second quarter.Wo can greatly reduce losses and even turn losses into profits. The transfer of 67% stake in Baowo affects the profit to increase 4 every year.7 ppm (equity return from equity + 33% equity return from 19 years to 100% equity return from 19 years), the actual performance increase is 6.800 million, so we expect the increase in main performance to be between 200 million and 300 million, the main business performance has begun to gradually realize, the turning point in performance. Holding high-quality assets, it is a leader in fuel cell sales.The company has rich experience in cooperation with international commercial vehicle giants. Foton Daimler, Foton Cummins, Foton ZF and other assets are all high-quality assets of Sino-foreign joint ventures. At present, the company’s products are prominent in heavy trucks, engines, and the largest area, ensuring sales.And profit cashed.The company has deeply cultivated the layout of hydrogen fuel cells and has a bright future.Hydrogen fuel cells are an important development trend in the field of new energy. The early layout of Foton began in 2006, and the product order was continuously updated. Recently, it has received another large order of 49 Ouhui hydrogen fuel buses and 100 Ou Marco hydrogen fuel logistics vehicles. The reality is thatThe strongest power in the field of fuel cells.Foton, Yihuatong, Toyota and other recent strategic cooperation agreements are dedicated to the promotion of hydrogen transportation in the Winter Olympics and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The advent of a new stage of hydrogen energy development will create new growth points for the company’s performance. Risk reminder: The impact of the decline in new energy subsidies, Bao Wo sales are less than expected

Depth-Company-Ping An of China (601318): a financial giant that is stable and far away

Depth * Company * Ping An of China (601318): a financial giant that is stable and far away

In the first half of 2019, the company realized an operating profit of 734 due to its mother.

600 million, +23 a year.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 976.

800 million, +68 a year.

1%; new business value of life insurance is 410.

5 ‰, +4 for ten years.

7%; the Group’s embedded value in the first half of the year was 11,131.

800 million, a year-on-year increase of +11.


  The recovery of the equity market + tax reduction flushed back the Group’s return to net profit by +68.

1%: 1) The net profit attributable to mothers will be increased by + 50% after excluding the impact of tax reduction of 10.4 billion; 2) The net profit attributable to mothers will be 703.

200 million, +104 per year.

9%, excluding the new tax cut of 86.

0 million yuan +79 in the next ten years.

8%; 3) Life insurance and health insurance belong to the mother’s operating profit of 479.

60,000 yuan, an increase of 36 in ten years.

9%, the proportion increased to 65.


  The new business value rate and per capita capacity increased in both directions, driving the growth of new business value: 1) The Group’s 19H NBV achieved 410.

5 ‰, +4 for ten years.


New business value ratio 44.

7%, +5 per year.

7 units.

  The company continuously strengthens its product layout advantages, deepens long-term savings and critical illness insurance products, and drives the value of new business to continue to increase; 2) The number of 19H agents is 128.

60,000, compared with -9 at the beginning of the year.

3%, earlier 19Q1 -1.


The agent team’s auditing effect is obvious, and it tends to specialize, with a per capita NBV of +8.

5% to 29,314 yuan / person, the agent channel value rate of 58.

9%, an increase of 9 a year.

The nine first-tier financial insurance operating profits benefited from the new tax reduction policy, and the compensation rate was under pressure: 1) 19H financial insurance achieved net profit of 118.

4 ‰, +99 a year.

8%; Excluding New Deal for Tax Reduction18.

6 trillion impact +68 in the next ten years.

5%; 2) 1930 P & C insurance premium income 1304.

7 trillion, ten years +9.

7%; comprehensive cost rate of 96.6%, increasing by 0 every year.

8 units, of which the cost rate is 37.

4% (one year to ten years), with a payout ratio of 59.

2% (ten years +1.

8 units); 3) Auto insurance contributed premium income of 923.

4 ‰, +9 for ten years.

0%, market share increased by 1 up to 23.

3%, the Matthew effect is prominent.

  The recovery of the equity market drove the return on investment over: 1) The company’s total / net return on investment was 5.

5% / 4.

5%, increase by 1 every year.


3 shareholders, the equity market recovered in 19Q1, and the company’s equity category increased by 1 instead.

1 up to 11.

0%; 2) The scale of insurance fund investment assets expanded, reaching 19 in 19H.

0 trillion, +5 a year.


  Investment recommendations The recovery of the equity market in the first half of the year in the first half of 19 years + the new policy of pricing flushed back, driving high net profit growth.

The per capita capacity of the agent increased, and the sales of new critical illness insurance products exceeded expectations in July. It is estimated that the new single premium and new business value in 19 years will be low before high. We have raised the company’s profit forecast and expect the NBV growth rate in 无锡桑拿网 19/20/21 to be 8.

4% / 12.

4% / 13.

6%, EV growth rate was 22.


% / 19.

4% / 19.


The company’s 2019P / EV is 1.

3x, maintain BUY rating.

  Risk reminders: The growth rate of insurance premiums for protection-type insurance products has fallen short of expectations; the dual impact of market fluctuations on industry performance and estimates; and the uncertainty of insurance company investment caused by downward interest rates.

China Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. (600195): First-quarter performance is under pressure and expected growth is unexpected due to epidemic situation

China Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. (600195): First-quarter performance is under pressure and expected growth is unexpected due to epidemic situation

2018 / 1Q19 return to mother net profit +3.

94% /-29.

25%, 1Q19 results are lower than expected 2018 / 1Q19 results announced by China Animal Husbandry: 2018 revenue / net profit attributable to mother +8

96% / + 3.

94% to 44.


16 ppm, corresponding to 4Q18 revenue / attributable net profit for two years -14.

39% /-43.

35% to 12.


780,000 yuan, 19Q1 income / net profit attributable to mother for two years -14.

85% /-29.

25% to 8.


880,000 yuan. The 2018 performance was in line with expectations. The 1Q19 performance exceeded expectations. The decline in investment income was mainly due to the following: 1) In 2018, the company’s various sections developed in a balanced and stable manner, and biological products / veterinary drugs / feed income increased by +7.

10% / + 6.

77% / + 13.

96%, gross margin constant +4.

84 / -0.

57 / + 0.

52pct, of which we estimate that the company’s foot-and-mouth disease vaccine revenue increased by -30% to about US $ 400 million in 2018, and the market-focused foot-and-mouth disease market seedlings improved in the first half of the year, but the sales rate fell in the second half;Jindawei’s operating situation changed, the company confirmed investment income in 1Q19 for half a year -46.

93% to 0.

USD 3.9 billion, a drag on performance; 3) The company expects 1H19 net profit or replacement due to the continuing impact of the epidemic and the structural change of veterinary drug products.

Development Trend The African swine fever epidemic will increase the growth rate this year: under the combined effect of low breeding profit and African swine fever, the productivity of the pig cycle in this round has exceeded the previous cycle, and if the summer epidemic is caused by mosquitoes,Strengthening, production capacity continues to be possible.

The clearing of pig production capacity is not conducive to the company’s feed and animal vaccine sales, which has reduced the overall demand shrinking, which has led to the increase in sales of feed and vaccines due to the strict control of logistics and human flow in pig farms.

In general, we judge that the sales of 2H19 are expected to be better than 1H19. Because the pig price is in the conversion stage, the price of converted pigs will increase, and the profitability of farming will improve. This will allow marginal improvement in both vaccine and feed demand.

The company’s new product of foot and mouth disease was approved, which is good for the development of market seedling business: In 2017, the company 杭州桑拿网 upgraded the product of foot and mouth disease market seedlings through technological transformation, and expanded the sales of foot and mouth disease market seedlings in 1H18.The lack of A-foot-and-mouth disease vaccine products for swine, and sales of 2H18 have once again tilted.

In March 2019, the company’s swine OA foot-and-mouth disease vaccine production was approved as three types of new veterinary drugs. This product meets the mainstream anti-epidemic needs of the market and has certain differentiation. In the future, it will become the company’s main product to develop the foot-and-mouth disease market vaccine again.

From the timetable forecast, we conservatively predict that the new product will be launched in 4Q19 for the first time, and if it goes smoothly, it will catch up with this year’s fall defense.

Earnings forecast Taking into account the impact of African swine fever and the reduction in investment income, we have lowered our net profit return to mothers for 2019/202011.

7% / 13.

7% to 4.


One million yuan.

Estimates and Suggestions Estimates correspond to 17/15 times the estimates for 2019/2020.

Maintain the recommended level, but slightly reduce the target price by 3% to 15 yuan, corresponding to 20/18 times the 2019/2020 estimate, + 21% space.

Risk policy risks; company reforms are less than expected risks; new product promotion is less than expected risks.

Chongqing Beer (600132) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Structure Optimization Clearly Leads Operational Efficiency

Chongqing Beer (600132) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Structure Optimization Clearly Leads Operational Efficiency
Performance summary: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and the first three quarters achieved revenue of 3 billion yuan (+3.5%), net profit attributable to mother 5.9% 100% (+ 54%), 4% 100% (+13.8%); of which 1.2 billion (+2) in 19Q3.8%), net profit attributable to mother 3.600 million (+ 103%), attributed to the mother deducted non-net profit1.800 million (+ 14%). The sales volume of Q3 shifted slightly due to the weather, and the adjustment of the structure to raise the ton price effect was significant.1. From the perspective of sales volume, the sales volume in the first three quarters of 2019 was 79.80,000 liters, previously +0.5%, of which Q3 achieved sales of 31.50,000 kiloliters, an average of 2% over a ten-year period. Inventory clearance in major channels is related to the cooler summer this year.2. In terms of ton price, the company’s overall ton price in the first three quarters reached 3,718 yuan / ton, each time + 5%. The continuous optimization of the structure and the gradual downward adjustment led to the ton price increase.High-grade beer (more than 8 yuan), medium-grade beer (4-8 yuan), low-grade beer (less than 4 yuan) respectively achieve income 4.400 million, 21.3 trillion, 4 trillion, +5 for ten years.4%, 6.8%, + 03%, high-end product Q3 has an accelerating trend.3. In terms of products, high-end products such as Chongqing Pure Health and “Specials Carlsberg” increased the market rate quickly; the new product “Alcohol Ambassador” strengthened the structure of mid-to-high-end products and grew significantly.Slower than the overall level.The optimization of the overall product structure is obvious.4. In terms of regions, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Hunan have realized income 21 respectively.800 million (+ 2%), 5.800 million (+28.6%), 2.100 million (-5.3%): 1) Sichuan market benefited from Carlsberg Group’s “big city” expansion strategy, with rapid growth; 2) Hunan market slightly shifted crops due to the closure of the Changde plant. The gross profit margin of the beer business has steadily increased, and non-operating income has increased.1. The company’s overall gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 41.8%, ten years +0.At 64pp, the company effectively resolved the pressure on glass bottles and barley costs by optimizing the product structure and gradually declining to achieve a steady increase in gross profit margin.2. Expenses: The company’s selling expenses 13.4%, a decline of 0 per year.6pp, the market competition tends to ease and make up for improvement; management costs are reduced 4.2%, basically unchanged for one year; 0 for financial expenses.2%, 0 per year.35pp, the overall three fee cost 17.8%, a decline of 0 per year.84pp, cost rate is effectively controlled.3. The company’s Q3 recorded asset impairment income of 9.61 million yuan (mainly from the disposal of Yongchuan Winery) and non-operating income1.700 million US dollars (mainly due to the adjustment of the retiree’s large-scale medical insurance policy, the company adjusted the actuarial losses recognized in other comprehensive income in the previous year to the undistributed profit). Due to this, Q3 achieved net profit attributable to the mother.6 billion, a sharp increase previously. Profit forecast and rating.The beer industry is at an inflection point, and 上海夜网论坛 product structure upgrades have driven profit improvement.The EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.3 yuan, 1.13 yuan, 1.31 yuan (excluding non-operating income of 19Q3 is 1 yuan, 1 yuan.13 yuan, 1.31 yuan), corresponding estimates are 31X, 36X, 31X (41X, 36X, 31X), maintaining the “overweight” level. Risk warning: raw material prices may fluctuate sharply, and sales may fall short of expectations.

Depth-Company-Zhongshun Jierou (002511): Q3 revenue growth suspends profit level hits record high

Depth * Company * Zhongshun Jierou (002511): Q3 revenue growth suspends profit level hits record high

The company released the third quarter of 2019 report, and the company achieved revenue of 48 in the first three quarters.

200 million, +18 a year.

1%; net profit attributable to mother 4.

4 ‰, +40 per year.

0%; non-net profit attributable to mother 4.

3 ‰, +48 per year.


19Q3 achieved revenue of 16.

500 million, ten years +10.

2%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

600 million, +44 a year.

2%; non-net profit attributable to mother 1.

600 四川耍耍网 million, +61 a year.


Key points of support level Industry competition and e-commerce adjustments have caused Q3 revenue growth to be suspended.

19Q3 company revenue increased by 10 in ten years.

2%, down 11 from 18Q3.

4pct, the rapid growth in revenue growth in the first three quarters3.

6 points to 18.


This is mainly due to the low price of raw material pulp, the regeneration of small and medium capacity, and intensified market competition, and some friends started to reduce prices in Q2, indirectly changing the company’s product competitiveness.

In addition, due to the internal operation adjustment of an important e-commerce cooperation platform, the revenue growth rate of e-commerce channels has dropped significantly compared to the same period, which has dropped from 60% + to 30%.

It is expected that the e-commerce problem will be resolved in the fourth quarter, and the company will adjust the promotion rhythm and marketing expenses arrangement in a timely manner, and gradually promote the maintenance of 18% -20% revenue growth.

The proportion of high-end products continues to increase, and Sun sales are improving.

In the short term of the report, the company continued to promote the sales of mid-to-high-end products of “Jierou” and accelerated the listing of “Sun”.

According to estimates, the revenue growth rate of faces with high gross margin levels, emulsions, and natural wood series is significantly higher than the overall level, and the proportion of revenue continues to increase to 68%.

In addition, the “Sun” products launched on July 31st meet the needs of the low-end market, which will help increase channel utilization and product conversion, expand the target customer base, and maintain a high level of gross profit margin. Excellent sales performance will become a company in the future.New revenue growth driver.

Profitability reached a new high.

Reported short-term, the company’s gross profit margin short-term +3.

0 points to 38.

3%, net interest rate +1 per second.

4 points to 9.

1%, of which 19Q3 gross margin growth rate +8.

2pct to 41.

4%, the main reasons are: 1) pulp price is still low, the cost of raw materials is lower than the same period of last year, and the expansion average effect is more obvious in Q3; 2) the proportion of products with high gross profit margins continues to increase, and the sales of solar energy have helped to expand the scale effectIn terms of expenses, sales increased due to increased competition. The distribution incentive plan brought about amortization costs of about 6 million yuan per month, R & D expanded, and the company’s sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio expanded and improved in the first three quarters.

8 pieces, 0 pieces

7pct, 0.

5pct, -0.
6pct, 19Q3 advance 2 ahead.
1pct, 1.

4pct, 1.

8pct, -0.

2pct, comprehensive rising net interest rate every +2.

3 points to 9.


It is expected that the company’s proportion of high gross profit products will continue to increase, the sun will be listed to improve the brand matrix, the sanitary napkin business will grow actively, and the sales layout will gradually roll out.



62 yuan (the original forecast was 0.



58 yuan), an increase of 46.

9% / 15.

5% / 16.

9%, the current budget corresponds to 19 years of PE30X, maintain BUY rating.

The main risks faced by the rating are the reversal of pulp prices; the overcapacity in the tissue industry has intensified; the promotion of new products has fallen short of expectations.

Midea Group (000333): Where does Midea T + 3 benefit?

Midea Group (000333): Where does Midea T + 3 benefit?
T + 3 is often regarded as the act of accelerating turnover efficiency and reducing inventory. Some market opinions suggest that the turnover efficiency has not been significantly improved under the implementation of T + 3, especially in the manifestation of some financial indicators.We think that understanding T + 3 from the perspective of statements alone is slightly 深圳桑拿网 insufficient. In this article, we will discuss with investors the following three questions to find out where the US T + 3 benefits are reflected. Checking Little Swan: How to see the true effect of T + 3?Looking back at the promotion process of T + 3 in Midea Group, it was first proposed by Little Swan in 2014. It is also because of the success of this model in Little Swan that it was eventually gradually promoted in other business groups of the Group.From the perspective of inventory, in the initial stage of implementing T + 3, the inventory turnover rate has increased significantly, and the turnover efficiency has declined since 2016.The change in the proportion of funds received in advance was an upward trend in the initial implementation of T + 3, and a turning point occurred in 2016. Considering the increase in scale, changes in the payment policy may have caused this change.There are some other indicators, such as the account receivable turnover rate and the sales expense rate, which do not reflect the scale effect brought by the increase in conversion income. The improvement of T + 3 for these subjects cannot be directly reflected in the annual report.Therefore, the T + 3 advantage that can be achieved from the perspective of financial indicators is limited. We may need to pay more attention to whether the implementation of the strategy is reflected on the income side and performance side.We think that the interpretation of T + 3 may need to be viewed from the perspective of the terminal market, rather than simply the interpretation of repeated statements. The reaction speed of T + 3 is one of its biggest advantages in the overall terminal competition, which is most obvious.Reflecting its effect is the increase in the company’s market share. Can the air conditioner do T + 3?The market often attributes part of the success of Little Swan to the characteristics of the washing machine itself, and there are some doubts about whether T + 3 can succeed in replacing the air conditioner. The core purpose of the US Department to promote the T + 3 reform is actually to target the traditional air-conditioning company’s “off-season payment mode” model.But the situation is changing now: 1) The demand for air conditioners is ironing, that is, the replacement is gradually rather than strengthening, and the proportion of air conditioner sales in the peak season is gradually decreasing, and the festival promotion brought by “artificial festival”The point in time provides predictability for sales volume; 2) the end consumer’s demand is the real demand, and the “playing money and pressing goods” model involves more the game between the company and the channel.T + 3 mainly evaluates terminal mobile sales, which will lead to increased attention to the core needs of consumers, eventually forcing agents to further improve their ability to grasp the market. How is T + 3 doing in the US at this stage?Midea ‘s expectation is to gradually spread T + 3 to all categories of products under the group. Let ‘s first look at some of the main indicators analyzed earlier, such as inventory turnover rate, accounts receivable turnover rate, etc. The basic trend is similar to that of us in Little SwanSimilar trends were seen, with no significant increase in efficiency or reduction in costs.Therefore, the improvement in the operational efficiency of the United States that we are looking for is mainly reflected in the acquisition of market share in the initial stage, and the improvement in the cost side may not be seen for a short time.The industry opportunities for raw material decline are not sustainable, and a longer-term strategy is needed in the future. Investment suggestion: Midea actively promotes channel transformation, strengthens the company’s retail capabilities, gradually transforms the multi-brand system, gradually strengthens the brand effect, and strengthens the synergy with KUKA and Toshiba. We maintain the company’s net profit for the year 19-21 is 233.85, 266.30, 294.36 ppm, corresponding to a dynamic evaluation of 15.64x, 13.73x, 12.43x, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: exchange rate, raw material price fluctuation risk; multi-brand sales are not as expected.